Some predictors of cardiovascular mortality among the elderly population of Botucatu (SP).

OBJECTIVE To detect factors associated with cardiovascular mortality in the elderly of Botucatu. METHODS We evaluated 29 variables of interest in a cohort of patients aged 60 using data from a survey conducted between 1983/84. The elderly cohort was analyzed in 1992 to detect the occurrence of cardiovascular deaths. Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test, and Cox regression analysis. Three models were adapted for each group of variables, and a final model was chosen from those variables selected from each group. RESULTS We identified predictor for cardiovascular death according to age for elderly males not supporting the family, not possessing a vehicle, and previous cardiovascular disease. In elderly females, the predictor variables were previous cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus. CONCLUSION Socioeconomic indicators (family heading and vehicle ownership) may be added to well stabilished medical factors (diabete mellitus and hypertension to select target groups for programs intended to reduce deaths due to cardiovascular diseases in elderly people.